A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
