🔗 Share this article

Just 48 hours to go.

The English side's opening match in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to make runs, isn't it?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived challenge of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to batting in Australia, especially against fast bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and robustness of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a total of 694 runs, featuring a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

In seven Tests in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often overthink floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The issue in {day-night matches|